The German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin published a study authored by G. Steinberg, a Mideast expert (spent more than 7 days there Mr. O Hanlon).
It’s beyond grim.
"Already today, the main priority is to prevent Iraq from breaking apart completely." That is the sober conclusion of a new study released Wednesday in Berlin on the situation in Iraq... the study argues that there is little hope of a centralized power in Iraq and that the country's future depends on walking the fine line between decentralizing power and civil war.
Our Speadin' Democracy Tour is about over.
So discussion is Federalism, or loosely aligned states are the only chance for Iraq to be a state at all. So, sorry Bushies, no democracy is coming here. I know that’s not news. But two years ago you were a traitor of you didn’t think they deserve democracy.
That Iraq is threatening to break apart is, of course, nothing new. The Kurds in northern Iraq have established an autonomous Kurdish region. In the south of the country, the Shiites are interested in doing the same. Meanwhile, in the center of Iraq, violence remains part of everyday life as Shiite and Sunni extremist groups continue campaigns of car and suicide bombings.
So this experiment in democracy spreading has not only failed, democracy will likely not even be an option for probably ever in Iraq.
This is what we have brought them.
Indeed, the massive attack in the Kurdish area near the Syrian border on Tuesday seemed like proof that sectarian violence is rapidly spreading north. Four truck bombs exploded in villages killing at least 200 people. The bombs were likely detonated by Sunni groups angered by a Kurdish-speaking sect called the Yazidis. In April, a Yazidi woman was stoned to death for dating a Sunni Arab.
Problem is that the Sunnis. Once the power in Iraq, will not rest while the Shiites develop a government without them. Sunnis will also not rest knowing that the Kurds, who were once under their thumbs, will have autonomy while they, the Sunnis, suffer bombings all day long in Al Anbar Province. So no matter who settles in, the killing will not stop.
Right now,Northern Iraq is a defacto Southern Turkey. Well, do you think that the Sunnis who once profited off of the oil coming out of Kirkuk and Mosul will stand by and let the Kurds have their own autonomy and their oil profits?
Condi Rice has not only given up, she has basically gone shoe shopping. Perhaps. Who knows, but all the PR about the politicial initiatives she was going to push have all but disappeared. All of our oil sharing discussions and all of our "coalition building" has fallen aside like a fading star.
It's sad how all that 'effort' goes into the toilet when a bomb goes off. Great PR moments and at the end of the day, nothing but blood and guts in the street.
All of which makes the immediate future in Iraq look bleak, Steinberg writes. The alternative to a successful federalism solution, he indicates, is chaos, more violence and a Shiite dictatorship. "Iraq is a failed state," the report concludes, "and will remain unstable for the foreseeable future."
At the end of the day, replacing Saddam with abject 'blood and chaos was the most tragic thing that we could do. All the Kings horses and all the King's men couldn't...well you the end.
http://www.spiegel.de/...